Free Tool
Trade Expectancy Calculator
The rupee value of an average trade in your system. A 70 per cent win rate sounds excellent — until the losing 30 per cent are three times larger than the winners. The math decides whether a system compounds or bleeds.
What this expectancy looks like over time
Assumes each trade result is independent. Real trading introduces serial correlation, regime shifts, and slippage — treat these as best-case projections.
| Horizon | Trades | Projected P&L |
|---|
How to read this
Expectancy improvements come from two levers: raising the win rate (better entries, fewer trades) and raising the average win / average loss ratio (tighter stops, better targets). Most retail traders obsess over the first lever; most institutional systems optimise the second.
Get the expectancy report
An email-delivered PDF covering the math, Indian retail worked examples, the three levers that move expectancy, and the rebuild protocol when a system turns expectancy-negative. No cost. No onward sharing.
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E = (W × avg_win) − ((1 − W) × avg_loss)
where W is win rate (0 to 1), avg_win and avg_loss are rupee amounts. A positive number means the system compounds; a negative number means it bleeds on every additional trade. Full treatment of expectancy, reward-to-risk, and rebuild protocols in the Bharath Shiksha Professional stage (Stage 3).