Edge measurement · Free tool
Expectancy is the average rupees earned (or lost) per trade across many trades. Positive expectancy = strategy is statistically profitable over time. Negative expectancy = no amount of focus, hope, or stress will make it work.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Example: 55% win rate × ₹3,000 avg win − 45% loss rate × ₹2,000 avg loss = ₹1,650 − ₹900 = ₹750 per trade. Across 100 trades, expectancy projects ₹75,000 in winnings — provided the win rate and average win/loss hold up over the sample.
A 70% win rate sounds great, but if average win is ₹500 and average loss is ₹2,000, expectancy = ₹350 − ₹600 = −₹250 per trade. Strategy loses money despite winning most trades. Win rate alone is a marketing metric; expectancy is the scoreboard.
Expectancy estimates from fewer than 30 trades are unreliable. Estimates from fewer than 100 are noisy. The calculator computes expected total over N trades but the variance around that figure is large at small N.
Educational tool. Performs mathematics on inputs you provide. Does not predict actual future returns; expectancy is a statistical projection assuming inputs hold.